Economic Outlook

Recent Survey Results

The overall RMI dropped below growth neutral for March to its lowest level since October 2025.
Weakness in the farm sector is spilling over into the business community with approximately 27.2% of bankers reporting that small businesses in their area were experiencing declines in business activity.
After falling below growth neutral for January and February, the March farm and ranchland index rose to 50.2 from 45.5 in February.
The 2026 conflict in Iran has created significant volatility in the agricultural sector, primarily impacting agricultural equipment sales, with the index falling below growth neutral for the 31st straight month.
More than half, or 52.4%, indicated no change or declines in delinquency rates, with 47.6 percent reporting that loan delinquency rates increased modestly.

March 2026 recorded the highest overall manufacturing reading since March 2025.
Manufacturing jobs increased for the first time since March 2025.
Approximately, 61.1% of supply managers reported that the Iran conflict was having a negative impact on their purchasing decisions.
Supply chain disruptions climbed for the month.
The wholesale inflation gauge is in a range indicating elevated and rising wholesale price pressures.
As reported by one supply manager, “We purchase millions of gallons of diesel fuel every year. The cost of fuel is not showing up in the rates to haul freight, yet. Once it does, inflation will rise sharply.”
Initial claims for unemployment compensation for the last five weeks, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 7.2% for the nine-state Mid-American region.