Economic Outlook

Recent Survey Results

The region’s overall or Rural Mainstreet Index sank below growth neutral after two straight months above the threshold.
Three of four bank CEOs urge Congress to provide more financial support to farmers.
Farm loan delinquency rates are plateauing at a very modest rate of less than 1.5%.
According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first 11 months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, fell from $11.5 billion in 2024 to $10.8 billion in 2025, for a decline of 6.6%. Between 2024 and 2025 agriculture and livestock exports, Nebraska expanded by 35.1% and Illinois plummeted by 34.9%.
The farm equipment sales index sank below growth neutral for the 30th straight month.
Farmland prices sank below growth neutral.
Regarding President Trump’s imposition of tariffs, almost four of 10 bankers support a pullback on tariffs.

A sharp upturn in new February orders pushed the overall index into solid growth territory.
The regional manufacturing sector shed jobs for the 11th straight month.
The wholesale inflation gauge moved higher, further discounting the likelihood of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March 17-18 meetings.
Six of 10 supply managers reported that tariffs had caused economic damage to their firm. As reported by one supply manager, “The constant tariff volatility is not good for business.”
Both export and import readings slumped below growth neutral.
According to U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) data, regional manufacturing exports for all of 2025 fell 5.4% from 2024. Likewise, the regional importation of manufactured goods sank by 4.0%. Thus, the regional trade deficit in manufactured goods increased from $5.1 billion in 2024 to $6.2 billion in 2025.