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Economic Outlook

Recent Survey Results

Mid-America Manufacturing Index Remains Below Growth Neutral
Manufacturing Job Losses Increase for Third Straight Month

August 2023 Survey Highlights

• Overall index falls below growth neutral for a second straight month.  
• Approximately 45% of supply managers expect a recession in the second half of 2023.
• Creighton University’s survey results indicate that contrary to the Federal Reserve consensus, a recession in 2023 is still “on the table.”
• Manufacturing employment in the region has decreased for three consecutive months.
• The wholesale inflation gauge for the month rose to 63.7 in August from 52.2 in July.
• Only 27% of supply managers expect positive growth for their firm in the second half of 2023. 
• For the first half of 2023, compared to the same period in 2022, the region expanded manufacturing exports by 5.2%.
• Goss expects the Federal Reserve to make no change to short-term interest rates at their next meetings on Sept. 19-20.

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Rural Mainstreet Economy Slows in September
Half of Bankers Expect Economic Conditions to Worsen 

September 2023 Survey Results at a Glance:

• For the first time since March of this year, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index sank below growth neutral. 
• Approximately half of bankers expect economic conditions to worsen in the next six months. 
• A downturn in farm income was registered by bank CEOs as the No. 1 challenge to banking profitability for the next 12 months.
• For the fifth time in the past 12 months, farming equipment sales declined. 
• Fewer than 4% of bankers reported an upturn in farm loan delinquencies over the past six months. 
• Bank CEOs expect rising interest rates to represent the second greatest challenge to banking operations over the next 12 months. 
• Approximately 46.4% of bankers indicated that they expect another banking crisis in 2023. 
• The region’s agriculture exports, including processed foods, fell from $19.95 billion in the first seven months of 2022 to $18.45 billion for the same period in 2023, for a 7.4% slump.

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