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Economic Outlook

Recent Survey Results

Mid-America Economy Rebounds to Six-Month High:
Wholesale Inflation Soars Even Higher

February 2023 Survey Highlights:

• The regional overall index, or business barometer, rose to its highest level since July 2022. 
• The regional wholesale inflation gauge rocketed to a six-month high.  
• Creighton’s monthly wholesale price index points to a 0.50% (50 basis points) rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s March 21-22 meetings.
• Four of ten supply managers surveyed expect a national recession in 2023.
• Due to shortages and excessive inflation, almost one half of firms reported raising entry level wages above the inflation rate.

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Rural Mainstreet Economy Goes Negative for March
But Only 13.6% of Bankers Tightened Farm Credit Standards

March 2023 Survey Results at a Glance:

• After hovering around growth neutral for three straight months, the region’s overall economic reading slumped below the threshold to its lowest reading since October of last year.
• Farmland prices have now advanced for 30 straight months.
• After advancing by over 9% for 2022, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to expand by only 1% over the next 12 months.
• Only 13.6% of bankers tightened credit standards for farm loans this year.  
• Approximately 87% of bankers recommend a Federal Reserve rate hike at its next meetings, March 21-22, with almost one-third supporting a 0.50% increase. 
• Bank savings deposits rose to a record level. 

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