Economic Outlook
Recent Survey Results
MidJune’s Mid-America Manufacturing Index Edges Above Growth Neutral
Wholesale Inflationary Pressures Cooler
June 2024 Survey Highlights:
• For the third time this year, the overall, or Business Conditions Index, climbed above growth neutral.
• The wholesale price gauge fell for the month to a level indicating cooling inflationary pressures.
• The region’s employment index slumped below growth neutral for a sixth straight month.
• Approximately 6% of supply managers have brought all of their international purchases back to the U.S. (i.e., reshored). Another 42% have reshored a portion of their purchasing to the U.S.
• Supply managers remained pessimistic regarding the economic outlook with approximately 48% expecting a downturn in economic activity for the remainder of 2024.
• As a result of a weak 2024 economy and cooling inflationary pressures, Goss expects a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meetings.
Rural Mainstreet Economy Down for 10th Straight Month
Farmland Prices Fall for a Second Consecutive Month
June 2024 Survey Results at a Glance:
• For a 10th straight month, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index sank below growth neutral according to bank CEOs in the region.
• After 53 straight months of above growth neutral for farmland prices, prices declined for a second straight month.
• Farm equipment sales sank below growth neutral for the 12th time in the past 13 months.
• Delinquency rates for farm and business loans on Rural Mainstreet have remained virtually unchanged over the past six months according to bank CEOs.
• Only 8.7% of bankers have increased their farm loan rejection rates, while approximately 13.0% and 4.3% reported restructuring or reducing the loan-to-value ratios, respectively.
• According to trade data from the International Trade Association, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were down 4.1% from the same period in 2023.
