Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook

Recent Survey Results

December Mid-America Business Conditions Soars:
First Manufacturing Job Gains Since May 2016

December highlights:

* Overall index jumps to its highest level since February 2015.
* After six straight months of job losses, the region adds manufacturing jobs.
* Wholesale inflation gauge climbs to its highest level in 2 1/2 years.
* Region is expected to add 70,000 jobs in the first half of 2017 for an annualized employment expansion of 1 percentage point.
* Top of regionís 2017 economic wish list: 15 percent increase in grain and livestock prices; Chief 2017 economic risk: Stronger U.S. dollar, U.S. trade restrictions and trade conflicts.

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Rural Mainstreet Begins Year Weak:
One-Third of Bankers Indicate Loan Defaults Biggest Banking Threat

January Survey Results at a Glance:

* For the 17th straight month, the Rural Mainstreet Index remained below growth neutral.
* Almost one-third of bank CEOs indicated that soaring loan defaults represented the greatest Rural Mainstreet banking threat for 2017.
* Almost nine of ten bankers reported that low agriculture commodity represented the biggest threat to the rural economic for 2017.
* Eighty percent of bankers expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the first half of 2017.
* States with January Rural Mainstreet expansions: Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and South Dakota; States with January Rural Mainstreet contractions: Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota and Wyoming.

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