Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook

Recent Survey Results

Mid-America October Index Lowest Since January 2017:
Six of Ten Supply Managers Report Negative Tariff Impacts

October survey highlights:

* The Business Conditions Index remained above growth neutral for the 23rd straight month, but fell to its lowest level since January 2017.
* Job gains down from September advances.
* Approximately 60.0 percent of supply managers indicated that rising tariffs had made it more difficult, or expensive, to purchase from abroad (up from 40.8 percent in September).
* Both exports and imports down for the month.
* On average, supply managers expect a 4.1 percent expansion in input and supply prices over the next 12 months.

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Rural Mainstreet Index Expands for October:
Bankers Expect Farmland Prices to Continue Decline

October Survey Results at a Glance:

* For a ninth straight month, the overall index rose above growth neutral.
* On average, bankers estimated that farmland prices declined by 4.0 percent over the past 12 months and expect farmland prices to fall by another 3.2 percent over the next 12 months.
* Approximately one-fifth of bank CEOs expect low farm income and falling farmland prices to present the greatest challenge to banking operations over the next 5 years.
* Loan demand by farmers remains strong.

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