Economic Outlook
Recent Survey Results
Mid-America Manufacturing Index Flashes Recession Warning
Job Losses with Rising Inflationary Pressures
November 2023 Survey Highlights
• Overall index drops to its lowest level since June 2020, or the early days of the pandemic.
• Overall index is in a range indicating recessionary conditions in the regional manufacturing sector.
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data show that the region has lost 12,000 manufacturing jobs since April of this year.
• Survey results indicate jobs losses for the month combined with a significant upturn in inflationary pressures.
• Approximately six of 10 supply managers named the looming recession as the top threat to their firm’s business activity.
• According to BLS data, the regional average manufacturing wage rate climbed by 3.4% over the past 12 months or slightly above the 3.2% increase in consumer prices.
• As reported by one supply manager, “Rising prices and labor costs continue to plague our business even though we continue to do more with less.”
Rural Mainstreet Economy Slumps to Lowest Level in Three Years
Bank CEO Economic Confidence Plummets to Record Low
November 2023 Survey Results at a Glance:
• For a third straight month, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index sank below growth neutral to a three-year low.
• Banker economic confidence dropped to its lowest level since initiation of the survey in 2006.
• For the first time since January of this year, the checking deposit index advanced above growth neutral.
• For the fifth time in the past six months, farm equipment sales declined.
• Approximately 84.5% of bankers urged the Federal Reserve to make no changes to interest rates at its next meetings on December 12-13.
• Approximately 88.5% of bank CEOs reported that available jobs outnumbered available workers in their local economy.
• According to the International Trade Administration, the export of agriculture products from the region declined from $9.8 billion for the first nine months of 2022 to $8.6 billion for the same period in 2023 for a 12.7% slump.
