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Economic Outlook

Recent Survey Results

Mid-America Index Falls to Lowest Level in Over Two Years:
Wholesale Inflation Cools to Two-Year Low

September Survey Highlights:

• The overall index or business barometer fell for the fifth time in the past six months but remained above growth neutral for the 28th straight month. 
• The wholesale inflation gauge fell to its lowest level in two years.
• Manufacturers are stockpiling inventory to avoid supply chain disruptions.
• Supply chain disruptions remained the top risk for the final quarter of the year.
• Supply managers expect holiday economic activity to be flat for the final quarter of the year.
• In terms of manufacturing wage growth over the past 12 months, Nebraska (1) was tops in the region, followed by South Dakota (2), then Kansas (3), Missouri (4), Iowa (5), Minnesota (6), Oklahoma (7) and North Dakota (8). Manufacturing wages declined for Arkansas (9).  

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The Rural Mainstreet Economic Index Falls Below Growth Neutral: Fourth Straight Month of Deterioration

September 2022 Survey Results at a Glance:

• The overall index fell below growth neutral for the fourth consecutive month. 
• New hiring sank across the region. 
• More than two of 10 bank CEOs reported drought impacts were the greatest economic challenge going forward. 
• Four of 10 bankers indicated that high and escalating farm input costs were the greatest economic challenge to their bank and area over the next 12 months.
• Approximately 80% of bankers expect the costs of California’s Proposition 12 to be paid by consumers, with only 11.5% expecting the livestock producer to pay the costs. 

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