Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook

Recent Survey Results

Trade Issues Slow Mid-America Growth for May:
Trade War Making Purchasing More Difficult

 

May survey highlights:

* May overall index declines for second straight month; trade issues identified as mounting problem.
* Almost one-fourth of supply managers reported ordering early to avoid expanding tariffs.
* One in eight manufacturers reported switching suppliers to avoid growing tariffs.
* Almost two-thirds of manufacturers indicated trade skirmishes were making it more difficult to purchase from abroad.
* Four states, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota and Oklahoma recorded overall indices below growth neutral for the month.
* Export orders slumped for the month

 

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Rural Mainstreet Index Slumps Below Growth Neutral:Farm Loan Defaults Expected to Double from 2017 Rates

 

May Survey Results at a Glance:

For the first time since November the Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) fell below growth neutral.
* Bank CEOs project the percentage of farm loan defaults over the next 12 months will double the default rates for 2017.
* In reaction to weak farm income, almost two-thirds of bankers have increased collateral for farm loans.
* More than one in four bankers reports rejecting a higher percentage of farm loans due to declining farm income.
* The economic confidence index dropped to its lowest level in almost two years.



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