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Economic Outlook

Recent Survey Results

Mid-America Index Falls but Remains in Growth Range:
Supply Chain Disruptions Named No. 1 Challenge for Businesses

August Survey Highlights:

•    The overall index or business barometer fell in August but remained above growth neutral for the 27th straight month.
•    Employment expanded for the month. Approximately one-fourth of supply managers named labor shortages as their firm’s greatest 2022 challenge. 
•    Even though supply chain disruptions declined in August, almost 6 of 10 supply managers identified disruptions as the major business challenge for the rest of 2022. 
•    On average, manufacturing supply managers expect a raise of only 3.2% at their next review. This is down from 3.5% recorded last month. 

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The Rural Mainstreet Economic Index Falls Below Growth Neutral: Fourth Straight Month of Deterioration

September 2022 Survey Results at a Glance:

• The overall index fell below growth neutral for the fourth consecutive month. 
• New hiring sank across the region. 
• More than two of 10 bank CEOs reported drought impacts were the greatest economic challenge going forward. 
• Four of 10 bankers indicated that high and escalating farm input costs were the greatest economic challenge to their bank and area over the next 12 months.
• Approximately 80% of bankers expect the costs of California’s Proposition 12 to be paid by consumers, with only 11.5% expecting the livestock producer to pay the costs. 

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